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the fuels of the future
Oil and gas will be essential to meeting demand through 2030.
No single fuel can meet our world’s growing energy needs.
As populations increase and economies expand, we’ll need more energy to power our homes, businesses and industries, and to fuel our transportation needs. In 2030, global energy demand will be about 40 percent higher than it was in 2005, even assuming significant gains in efficiency.
To meet this demand, while addressing the risks posed by rising greenhouse gas emissions, we’ll need to call upon a broad mix of energy sources. ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy — A View to 2030, looks at the role that various fuels will play. Our findings include:
- Oil, natural gas and coal will remain essential because they are the only fuels with the scale and versatility to satisfy the majority of the world's growing needs. In 2030, these fuels will continue to provide approximately 80 percent of the world’s energy — a view shared by the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Continuing to improve the environmental performance of these fuels will remain important.
- Of these, natural gas will grow the fastest because of demand in power generation for efficient fuels with relatively low carbon intensity.
- Nuclear power and renewable fuels will also grow. Wind, solar and biofuels will rise fastest but account for only 2 percent of global energy demand in 2030.
Our world has enormous reserves of energy. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the amount of conventional oil that ultimately will be recovered from the Earth at more than three trillion barrels. If we add estimated frontier resources, such as heavy oil and shale oil, that volume grows to over four trillion barrels. Only about one trillion barrels of that oil has been produced so far.
Still, there are challenges. Untapped oil and gas resources often lie in hard-to-reach locations. Even with mitigation steps, global carbon-dioxide emissions are expected to rise through 2030. This is particularly true in developing countries, which will rely on relatively high carbon-intensive fuels like coal to meet their needs.
Ingenuity, foresight, and perseverance will continue to be our best allies in overcoming these challenges. New technologies — in everything from deepwater rigs to lithium-ion batteries for hybrid cars — let us produce and consume energy more efficiently, and with less impact on the environment.
As an energy technology leader, ExxonMobil is optimistic about the outlook for our world to 2030, and beyond. And we are committed to finding and delivering the fuels we’ll use to get there.
