fueling a growing world

Chart: World Energy Demand to 2030Click chart to enlarge

January 24, 2008

Power, transportation will lead growth in energy demand through 2030.

By 2030, our world will need more energy than it does now — a lot more. Populations will expand, economies will grow and living standards will rise. Hundreds of millions of people will gain access to basic energy supplies that many take for granted.

This economic growth will require energy. Even assuming significant improvements in energy efficiency, global energy demand in 2030 will be about 40 percent higher than in 2005. It’s an increase in total energy equivalent to more than 90 million barrels of oil a day — an addition more than double the current energy consumption of China.

How will we meet this demand safely, reliably and affordably, while also minimizing our impact on the environment?

ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook to 2030 looks at this and other challenging questions. This outlook, developed each year and available on our web site, focuses on long-term energy trends. Key findings include:

  • The vast majority of the energy-demand increase will take place in developing countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific region with its large populations and growing economies.
  • The largest energy-demand sector today, and the one with the greatest anticipated volume growth through 2030, is power generation. The fastest-growing sector, and the one most important to oil demand, is transportation.
  • Nuclear and renewable sources of energy will grow rapidly, but oil, gas and coal will continue to meet the majority — about 80 percent — of global energy needs for the foreseeable future. 
  • Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to rise on average about 1.2 percent a year, a total increase of about one-third by 2030.

Options for mitigating this expected rise in CO2 emissions include a more significant expansion of nuclear power and step changes in energy efficiency. Our Energy Outlook to 2030 looks at several possible alternatives, each of which illustrates the challenges — and the practical realities — the world faces in reducing emissions.

Over the next few weeks, we will use this space to examine this report in greater depth. We hope it will enhance understanding of our global energy future. Because fueling our growing world through 2030 will require not only a lot of energy, but also a lot of thoughtful actions by governments, businesses and individuals.