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economies in motion
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Developing countries will lead transportation demand growth through 2030.
History shows that when personal incomes rise, so does vehicle ownership. As China, India and other fast-developing nations move up the economic ladder, the number of cars and trucks in these countries will climb dramatically.
How dramatically? Consider this: In the United States, there are about 78 light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs and pickup trucks) for every 100 people. In China, there is just one such vehicle for every 100 people. As China’s economy expands, so will its fleet — by 2030, the number of light-duty vehicles in China is likely to exceed 100 million.
Rising demand for personal vehicles is one reason why transportation will be the fastest-growing energy-demand sector to 2030.
Another reason: Expanding world economies will push up demand for commercial transportation — the trucks, planes, ships and trains that support businesses, move goods, provide services, and create jobs. In fact, globally, people use more energy for commercial transportation than for personal vehicles.
ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy — A View to 2030, now available on our web site, projects that global energy demand for transportation will rise by an average 1.7 percent a year through 2030. Growth in developing countries will be more than 3 percent a year, five times faster than in developed countries.
As demand for transportation grows, energy efficiency will become increasingly important. Ongoing technology gains in conventional vehicles, plus a growing share of advanced vehicles such as hybrids, will produce substantial gains in the fuel economy of new vehicles.
Even so, ExxonMobil expects global demand for oil and other liquid fuels to be more than 35 percent higher in 2030 than it was in 2005, mostly because of transportation growth.
Meeting this demand won’t be easy. We’ll need to invest billions of dollars, gain access to new energy supplies, and continue to advance technology and free trade. We’ll also need to use energy as efficiently as possible. By taking these actions to ensure safe, reliable and affordable energy for transportation, we’ll keep the world’s economy moving forward.
In our next op-ed in this series, we will look at the fuels needed to meet energy demand through 2030.
